Former Biden Senate aide predicts US will adopt a ‘wait-and-see approach’ towards new Hong Kong security law before imposing sanctions

The fast-tracked Safeguarding National Security Ordinance, which came into force last Saturday, has triggered fresh calls from the US Congress for new sanctions to be slapped on city officials and Hong Kong trade offices in the US to be stripped of special privileges.

But Jannuzi noted that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not hint at any new sanctions in a statement issued the day before the new law’s enactment, expressing only “deep concern” and pledging to “stand with” the people of Hong Kong.

“It’s likely that Washington is in wait-and-see mode,” he told the Post in an interview after a seminar on Thursday afternoon at the University of Hong Kong.

“They want to see how the new security law is actually implemented because on paper it says one thing, but it will not be until you begin to see actual cases move through the court system that Washington would be in a stronger position to evaluate the actual substance of how this law might change life in Hong Kong.

“I’m confident that the State Department and the US government will judge Hong Kong based on its conduct, not based just on media reports or words on paper.”

Hong Kong has ‘practical plans’ to counter Article 23 law sanctions: officials

Hong Kong officials have said the new law is “defensive” in nature and the circumstances differ from the Beijing-decreed national security law, which was imposed in June 2020 in the wake of the 2019 social unrest and led to the arrests of 47 opposition figures and former media mogul Jimmy Lai Chee-ying.

The new legislation, mandated under Article 23 of the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, is already affecting prisoners convicted of national security offences as they are unlikely to be granted early release for good behaviour.

Jannuzi said the US, in considering new sanctions, would watch closely to see if Hong Kong authorities were applying the legislation fairly, and whether cases would be adjudicated in line with the rule of law.

The veteran China watcher said he first visited Hong Kong in 1984 and was impressed by the “very dramatic” contrast between the then British colony and mainland China.

Jannuzi, noting he had visited the city more than a dozen times since then, said Hong Kong remained a “valuable bridge” between the US and its understanding of the rest of China. He said he expected Hong Kong to remain a special place for Americans doing business in Asia.

He said he believed Biden “in his heart” still had a long-standing commitment to Hong Kong’s special qualities. But Americans were beginning to “forget” Hong Kong was special as the city could not escape the consequences of the “US-China strategic rivalry”, he said.

Jannuzi said at the seminar that mistrust between the world’s two largest economies was largely a product of structural domestic problems faced by Americans, which had sapped US politics of an appetite for globalism.

Hongkongers who back critics of domestic national security law could be in breach

But Hong Kong could still do itself some favours, he told the audience, which included Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee and Bernard Chan, respectively the current and former convenors of the city’s key decision-making Executive Council.

“The best thing that Hong Kong can do is to continue to celebrate everything that makes Hong Kong special,” he said.

“Whether that’s your tolerance for different faiths, or your inclusivity as a society with respect to LGBTQ rights, or your willingness to embrace a diversity of views, or your willingness to have a robust debate.”

He added: “Celebrating what makes Hong Kong special is like a muscle that needs to be exercised in order to keep a fit body. You need to exercise every day.

“Keep those muscles strong and I think America will notice that – I hope so, I hope so.”

Biden will face his predecessor Donald Trump in a US presidential election rematch this November after both secured enough nominations from their parties earlier this month.

Jannuzi told the Post the bipartisan consensus among Republicans and Democrats was that the US-China relationship was competitive and there were persistent tensions over human rights and security. But he also noticed that Biden had been trying to stabilise ties in the past eight months.

“If Biden is re-elected, I think you will see continued commitment to dialogue and engagement with Beijing. If Trump is elected, I’m less certain,” he said.